As the session finished out, we saw another attack, rejection and LOD. We then closed bouncing off the line.
Here is another chart, the hourly candlestick, that clearly illustrates the roll.
Look how smooth the topping process has been. Also, we have numerous tops and numerous levels of resistance - this should help contain the rally. At first glance, you may be disappointed with the close today. I know you would have liked to see 1074 breached and 1071 tested. I know I did - however, something very important happened. Despite the final gyrations, we set a new CLOSING low. The prior closing low was on 10/21 at 1081.40 - we closed today at 1079.45.
For now, no further analysis - just a bottle of wine!
Cheers
10 comments:
Not a bad day, although I should have shorted more aggressively, I guess, and I probably should have kept my long position during the day yesterday. (I can't short my instrument of choice anymore, so I have had some trouble figuring out what to take positions in. I will likely not work with individual stocks- too unpredictable.)
I'm thinking we get a nice squeeze Monday or so, but xpositions is very short right this second. (fairly impressive record of late:
http://xpositions.blogspot.com/)
David,
On my chart, the top of the new down chanel appears to be following the 2 year trend line form the 2007 highs.
Enjoy the Wine.
My best
David:
If you have time, I would be very interested in your thoughts concerning RUT for the last five days or so.
If monday is a down day, it seems to me that RUT may break both the 50d SMA and the wedge lower support, possibly down to the 585 level.
Also, to my mind COMP looks to be setting up to follow RUT some time next week if the market is down.
Thanks for your great charting and any help you can provide concerning RUT.
Hi David,
good analysis lately.
can you tell me what "es" refers to.
sorry for the novice question.
example: to go long or short the "es"
Hey CBS,
ES is the e-Mini S&P futures contract. It is a highly leveraged instrument for trading the S&P. Every 1 pt. move of the S&P translates to a $50 move in the value of the contract. It is a high speed - high stakes - form of trading. Very challenging, very rewarding. Many a trader is wiped out (completely) in a given day on the Futures market - so be very careful if you choose to trade futures...
All the best.
Hi Bob,
I'll cut a few cycles on the Russel and Nasdaq this weekend. A quick glance at the RUT reveals a possible S-H-H-S forming - but at the same time, we are right at the bottom trend line that follows the recent lows. I'll have to study it further to determine the price action and the MA's/retrace levels.
This is a good exercise, as the relationship between different indicies can help "predict" what may happen next.
Have a X-Country meet today - so it will be later in the weekend.
Cheers.
David:
david said: "This is a good exercise, as the relationship between different indicies can help "predict" what may happen next."
Precisely my thoughts. There is a possible divergence forming between RUT and SPX/DJIA. And if this is the end of this bull run then it would make sense that the small cap stocks would break the wedge first. Hopfully as a precurser to SML/COMP/SPX/DJIA following suit.
Your thoughts on this are greatly appreciated!
Hi David ,
From what I see the New down channel may be bit steeper than the 2 year down trend line .
We closed near but not at the bottom on Friday
It is pretty wide and in short term we could close about 1090 and keep the channel in tact .
Assuming for the moment that we follow down the 2 year line, We would break the lower long term trend line sometime in the Week of Fed 1st.
A break to the lower than Oct 2 would about NewYears.
As long as we stay under 1097 , its all good .
A break under 1070 will give us a touch of room to breath.
What moving averages are you using on your hour chart
Monday
David , The channle you have identiofied looks pretty solid,
it is deffinatly steeper than the 2 year down trend line.
Still wide making for possible choppyness ,
We closed right on the bottom of the line , so there could be unside on tuesday , as high as the mid 80s.
We took out the 20dma the 50 still in waiting .
That is what I saw today
My Best
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