Notice how we bounced cleanly off the bottom trend line? We had a pause at the 20p MA, then the consolidation in the 1036-37 range, ending with a pop-up attempt to take 1042 with turn around back to 1040. What I really like about the price action is the range. We had another day with a 15pt swing. Lots of opportunities for ES scalping.
Focusing on where we are headed - it seems to me that we could very well get to a test of the top trend line near 1048 or so. I expect that we'll see some significant selling at that level and I plan to cash out my insurance if we see a strong rejection. The selling will be triggered by several technical issues including the trend line, the 50p MA, and the 38% retracement level for the last major rally leg. The 1048 level is also right around the midway point of the BBs. Finally, Stochs are back in the oversold zone.
We'll see what happens tomorrow!
13 comments:
David - Always appreciate your analysis. Late Friday afternoon, the mean two hour FOSC suggested a TNA rise for Monday, so I bought TNA at the close. This signal continued to persist at the end of today's trading. At the end of today, the mean 2hr Ease of Movement suggested continued upward stock movement rather than near term consolidation. I agree with you that after this bounce, the trend is down. Seems like January, 1939 (although I wasn't around quite yet)....Jordan.
Hi David , Well it has been interesting , Today seemed very dull for a 15 pt move.
I keep playing the upside badly
Such as today , picked up a long at
31-32 ish and got stopped out on the head fake , ( and didnt get back in )
I have a rime my mother use to tell me , Jack be nimble Jack be quick , Jack jump over the candle stick.
( I have been neither nimble or quick) I hope to improve on that
I am there with ya , the ascending wedge is still there. I think we are still in a Wave3?
Alcoa reaction we be know soon .
Best of luck
Hey Attitude and Payline,
The price action around the 50p MA on the hourly chart will reveal much. If we do not see a reversal at the top trend line - I will be surprised!
Good luck out there!
hi david,
nice analysis!
any targets in mind for this week ?
Like for eg. last week you had predicted 1025 ...
You mean a reversal here or a reversal a bit lower. I just wish I had gone long and stayed long when I thought we might get a bounce. I am starting to get short again, will phase in if we go higher. Again, some of the EWT morons are saying Friday is the day. Even if Friday is the day, I just don't think we're going to be at new highs by Friday.
Hey, I'm only down slightly on my shorts. I might take a 1/4 position each day until the end of the week.
We are now trading at the 20p MA on the daily. If we reverse today and close below 1052 - it is bearish. Below 1048 - and you can be confident in a sell-off in coming sessions.
I sold my insurance at a nice premium looking for downward price action later in the day. Gamble, I know - but I will stick with the technicals.
Good luck.
I accelerated my shorting but still have some powder. I could see a squeeze tomorrow with treasury and who knows what could happen with earnings, but I am (40-45%) on the red ship.
Hey, I feel pretty smart. I'll have to go post on the Oil blog.
David, good calls today (even if you didn't see 60 coming). Its very possible that we could start grinding down from here, sell off until the US balance sheet repairs. I wish I'd had the guts to play the long side Friday-early today
Thanks KPH,
We are hugging that upper trend line in a downward channel. We are still over-bought on the hourly chart and I would not be surprised to see a downleg tomorrow.
Then again, I did not expect us to close above 1052 - so we have to be careful. Much depends on the $USD right now.
David great call today on the fall to 52 , even if it ended at 54 ,
looked like a Bear takeover there for a bit.
I hope the Insurance Play pays off ,
We shall soon see .
I sold my longs and bought them back at 49 , Sold again Late , but I bought one back after hours.
I have less hedge than I have add for a long time.
KPH , best of luck for you to .
Thanks Payline,
The price level calls have been close enough and I am pleased to say that I am trading according to plan. I am looking for a downturn here and have sold my insurance in anticipation. Also, I decided to take some silver profits at the high of the day. I have a general rule to take profits when I am up over 20% on a position. No looking back! Intraday ES contract trading is also going well.
Good luck out there!
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