At this point I have secured March put options representing about 40% of my short equities positions in SPY (106), DIA (102), and QQQQ (45). I remain fully short in my equities and have a small short line on the March ES that at approximately 1033.00 (constant work to keep this position without losses).
I am amazed at how much hype is going into this one jobs report tomorrow. It is as if this one report controls the destiny of the markets for the balance of time. Quite amazing actually. It is just a jobs report, but it is being used to drive emotions to irrational levels. This is the most dangerous time in the market - for both bears and bulls. Bears run the risk of capitulating in a wave of panic while new Bulls run the risk of getting sucked into the wicked final push of a very tired 9 month rally.
I'll leave you with something I learned today. An investment committees responsible for a substantial portfolio has recently pulled out of the equities markets. The consensus of this veteran team is that the markets are way ahead of themselves, the economy is worse than being presented, and the time is now to lock in gains and avoid further risk. I suspect this is becoming familiar advice for organizations that rely on equity portfolios for operating income.
We will see.
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7 comments:
Hi , David ,Are not Job Fridays just total sillyness ?, cattle line of the trof to hear the newest lie.
The reactions are real, The Head fakes in the last few have been stunning , start down end up , or vice versa . ( 40 point swings in spx)
Expectation TRap.????
Jan 1 2009 the treasury listed the Us on Book Debt at 9.9... Trillion.
Jan 1 2010 12.3...Trillion
Perspective , send a check for 1b to all Russel 2000 company's have 300b left over lunch.
300B being a whole budget in say the Nixon era.
or China GDP 4.6t.
The Fed , well that X? Trillion we wont even talk about that.
My ewt count puts us in middle wave 5 of C of Z. with a target of 1145ish , this fits well the Rev HS top from today. And It really looks like it could be a Ending Diagonal.
Be Carful out there
On a rant , I live in Nebraska , how of lets make a deal Sen Ben Nelson.
All the crap there is to deal with ,what is the first bill on the new legislature ? the most important thing in the state ? Priority one ?
Change the amusement game law to get rid of a game I make ,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100106/ap_on_bi_ge/us_illegal_gambling
They cant win in court,
http://channels.netscape.com/pf/story.jsp?floc=FF-APO-1333&idq=/ff/story/0001%2F20090918%2F1910462998.htm&sc=1333
What a world we live in .
Hey Payline,
Interesting game. What is the basis of their claim - skill vs. luck? How does the game rely on skill?
Sorry to hear of your pressures.
Thanks for getting back on the bear bus. I thought for a second you switched over to the dark side.
Currently i 125% short and have another 25% to allocate on after this job number. I have the march 108 spy puts
David thank for asking :)
The standard is from 1953 till now is , The test of the character of a game is not whether it contains some skill or some chance but which dominates the outcome of the game .
and skill , is defined as not-chance
The player is presented a puzzles of 9 items , there is never a pat winner in the 9 but there can always be a winner crated by replace one of the 9 with a wild.
The longer the player takes to decide where they place the wild , the lower the reward becomes .
The player decides what puzzles to play , as they are shown to the player ( briefly) but withing normal reaction time standards.A good player can select the puzzle they wish to play.
There are bonus winners that the player may choose to play for and apply some different strategy .
When playing for X type bonus , they player may be excluding Y type winner ,
I know you wonder how can it make money , would a great player always win ? Perhaps yes , a great play can generally win , but as human behavior is the good player if offset buy they new player that " saw " the other win.
and as far as " always " winning ,
Ted William may have been the best hitter in the game of base ball ever , and it his best year , he failed in 6 of 10 at bats .
So in summary , the player has the ability to choose there puzzle ,
Decide where to place the wild , with time effecting the reward. And apply various stationary to achieve different results ,
And But for all of the above there would be no reward .
Even the 2 labs the State sent the game to would not say its a game of chance.
The larger point is every time we have a successful product , " THEY" want to stop us ,
Over the years we have been in four different state supreme courts . The only thing the products had in common have been making money for us and others ,
" THEY " think that is bad .
THEY need my lecture on capitalism .as THEY are not really capitalist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbShxKrH2Yo
Payline,
Big brother takes it al.
Tax, livelyhood and moral.
Welcome Atlas in Rand's world.
Good luck!!
Thanks Paulus , we fight it everyday .
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