Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Pretty Good Day...

Ocassionally, I get it right. Today was one of those days. All of the major indexes were down, substantially. The TRIN shows that the selling was strong and the buying at support was weak. The VIX shows volatility is again on the rise - which is obvious from the hourly and daily candlesticks.

Take a look at the SPX hourly.



We have tested the 1130ish area 5 times in two weeks. We are in a range of 1130 to 1150. Big money seems to be selling every chance it can get on volume. The proper play is to trade the range until it is broken. That suggests a bounce back to test that 1150 area once again. Chances favor price action being turned away before reaching the top of the channel. I am watching for tests of 1140 and 1143 as resistance levels that may send this puppy back down. Reversal at these levels could cause that final break of the 1030 support level and a rapid trip to 1115ish. Alternatively, we could see a more symetrical path for the price action as I have sketched on the chart. Finally, we could always break straight up through to all new highs!

Cheers.

4 comments:

payline said...

David , I am hoping its a Bear Flag too, Its started to look alot like the 4 top monster we spent 60 days in the middle of this up leg .

We stay in the box , smash out down or rally to new high , I have no dilutions that I have a clue at this point.

Good Luck and Be careful out there

David O said...

Hey Payline,

Though it is not the best sketch, if you look at the chart in my post I can see a s-h-h-s possibility developing. This pattern is depicted in the yellow dash line labeled "alternative".

Let it roll baby roll!

payline said...

David , ahhh Bear Flag wins

kpack said...

the q is whether we bounce from 15.