Thursday, January 14, 2010

30 minutes after Intel...

So today brought bad job numbers, worse retail sales numbers, and an apparent big beat by Intel. I am watching both INTC and the futures markets as I right this to see how the market digests. So far, I think we have a sell the news scenario developing for tomorrow. The market may be saturated here and ready to break to the downside under the right conditions. INTC rose above 22 for a few moments and has since given most back trading at 21.77 (fluctuating for now) - a mere .30 above the close - and guidance looks less than good for the coming quarter (down 8%).

After scalping some nice overnight profit on the ES and YM, I went flat into the day waiting for the reports. Take a look at the ES chart - captured about 30 minutes or so after the INTC results.



I think we may have a real double top forming here and this might be the confirmation. This chart - a 60 minute view - shows a double top forming across the last 6 sessions. If this plays nicely, it will see rejection tonight below the 114875 level and drive lower through the begging of next week. A double top typically forms over an 8-12 day session - so it is a candidate.

Note the low volume today relative to yesterday and the day before. Also, we may have a divergence in the RSI when comparing to two reaction highs. Support at 114000ish is going to be key - if it breaks, then we test then we see the 113000ish level again - which would be very nice.

If we see a break higher, then lookout. The market will be sending a very clear message - it wants to go up!

I'll be watching tonight.

6 comments:

Paulus said...

Good luck Dave,
I'm having a break, but sneak in once a while to see this market going up even if we close the country and throw away the key.
Today should have been a down day.
But I might be a simpleton.
But up again....
Will it ever correct?

David O said...

Hi Paulus,

It is good to take a break from time to time - I only wish this rally would do the same!

Attitude928 said...

I'm getting alot of down signals for tommorrow...

payline said...

Hi David , I smell it and feel it , I know that is not TA ,
Solar BS or not New Moon and a Part eclipse Friday,

Lets break that tend line and get past the Helicopter Monday,
Nice $ action tonite....

Knockem Dead out there.

payline said...

Paulus watch for a break of the support line , when it breaks it should be a Big Deal ...

Good Luck out there

Paulus said...

Payline,Dave
Thanks.

Will keep an eye on it.
But only when the wife is out or asleep, as I know when see sees me checking the market on our holiday, I will be having the "correction" big style ;-)

Good luck out there!