Take a look at the 5min chart for the SPX today:
I am short on the ES and YM in anticipation of a selling wave.
Cheers.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
IBM Earnings to Reveal Market Intention...
Everyone knows that IBM is going to beat the street and offer good guidance. The question is how will the market participants behave after the fact. Looking at all the indicies, we have either rallied up to Thursday's HOD or, in the case of DJT and the RIFIN, fallen short. There hasn't been selling pressure as I would expect, but the buying isn't strong either. Since the technicals really don't support a breakout rally I think we are going to get a major distribution wave into the IBM news.
Take a look at the 5min chart for the SPX today:
I am short on the ES and YM in anticipation of a selling wave.
Cheers.
Take a look at the 5min chart for the SPX today:
I am short on the ES and YM in anticipation of a selling wave.
Cheers.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
The last bear in town.
Stand tall!!
Even I have left the bear camp for some longs.
Hey Paulus,
I could very well be the last bear in town! Wouldn't that be perfect.
At this point, I have options that protect all of my QQQQ shorts and 40% of my DIA shorts. Looking to do the same on SPY based on the balance of this weeks action.
At the same time, I have secured put options matching my short lines in each issue against which I am selling twice the number of puts as a correction move. Hopefully this will create a soft landing for me by March.
Example:
Short X shares of QQQQ at 44.50
Own X March 46 calls (insurance)
Own X March 45 puts (enhancement)
Will sell 2X March 43 or 42 puts when QQQQ comes back to test 44-45ish.
The same applies to DIA and SPY - though I am far from the money on those shorts, requiring a pullback of at least 6% between now and March to break even with the above strategy.
Cheers!
Still a Bear over here , There are less and less of us every day ,
I was afraid the Friday low was a wave 4, it was .
David, interesting plays you have made with options , I enjoying reading the play .
I expect the real deal down wave will come suddenly as Fridays was , but NOT swing or fad , selling threw close at the low .,
David any thoughts on shorting 2x and 2x ETFs . say shorting UPRO on FAS ?
Any thoughts on buying puts on them as apposed to say SPY ?
Hey Payline,
I have been thinking about sector specific ultra plays as another possible repair/enhancement strategy. I am waiting to see how RIFIN performs this week with all the bank earnings and outlooks.
Cheers!
Dave many thanks for your explanation.
I know some of these strategies in theorie but never played it. So I am really keen on understanding and seeing how it works out.
Payline,
Good to hear still a bear in the camp.
I still hold some short, not to be a judas here.
To be honest my long's feel as bad as stealing from an old lady.
However, (except when so sophisticated an option play as Dave plays), regular short swing positions are again and again like 2,5- 3% loss, 1-1,5% up. An upward channel. So unless markets correct any day soon, only then one is triumphant.
But if up's keep eating your powder.....
I feel I have been playing the short swing game too longfor my good. For very good fundamental and TA reasons, but still.
Post a Comment