First, a few features (as I write this the market pops!):
1. The fib grid stretches across the HOD and the current LOD
2. The fib fan does the same - providing us with several fan blade retracement lines
3. The Red Line is the resistance of the day (or it was until this last minute pop)
4. The yellow trend lines show a wedge that is rising off the LOD
My choice to short (which I stand by even as the market tests 11010) is based on several factors. First, the confluence of several technical resistance points should be able to contain price action. These include the 38% retracement, the red resistance line, and the wedge top line. These forces contained the rising price action twice at the key rejection points which I labeled.
Above these levels is the 50% retracement level for the down wave. To reach this level, price action must push through some congestion and surpass prior tops without experiencing a sell off.
Finally, the pattern is bearish - it can be considered either a bear flag, a rising wedge, or a consolidation triangle. In either case, in it's current location with respect to the last down move - this is bearish.
Baring a major short covering rally - which I think I am witnessing - this should break to the down side.
Good luck out there!
7 comments:
Remember folks, I am out on a limb with this one - so be nice if I am wrong!
hey david.. i'm also looking to go short - had a nice faz week last week.. i was a couple cents off from my faz order being filled this morning and was going back and forth on shorting all day but stayed on the sidelines.. i'm looking for faz~19.20 or s&p 1115.. it could run away from me overnight but tomorrow seems to be d-day.. this goose is cooked!
Dave,
Have been stopped out on the peaks 3 days in a row on short positions.
Still hold some minor positions
I agree with the TA and your conclusion, however all selling is absorbed.
So patience still seems the best trade for now I feel.
Be carefull don't go in full!
No S&P shorts, but aex
Hi David , you have some time to get those 2 points back , I expect you will, Little bit of late day juice there .
I did not make any spx moves today , I was waiting for a wave 3rd impulse wave to show its self and one has not .
Have you noticed how everything from making the first of the 3 tops , seems to be in 3 not 5 wave pattern like we are in a giant zig zag,
From the this last Fridays low to todays high , 3 waves ,
The fall off the high today 3 waves , then a zig zag ( maybe a double.
Still no easy button
My best
David - I think you're correct. Tommorrow looks down to me.
Hey Attitude,
I just completed some more analysis - I think we'll have the opening volatility associated with jobs data - then a battle at the top of the rectangle. If we do not break out after jobs data - we will head lower by session end.
I'll have a new post up regarding this scenario tonight.
Cheers.
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