The final congestion band in the 1095 to 1100 range presents a possible double top, but a break and close above 1100 would likely negate that possibility. The gap left down between 070-072 combined with the distant 20p MA may give enough pause to for a pullback tomorrow. If a reversal is going to happen in the week, it is often a Tuesday - hence the expression turn-around Tuesday...
Again, for those who remain short, check your loss limit and time table. For me, a break out and close above 1120 this week is enough to adjust my positions - not abandon.
Good luck out there!
12 comments:
Hi David, Well for today , Gold was leading oil, and we hit the bottom on the $ again
Would you agree , follow threw to the upside Tuesday , would make 1121 all but a done deal ?
Now its who is leading the Dow, or SPX and COMP.
I went long at 80, planned to add at 90.5 but did not , debated selling longs at close , but the ghost of the run that started 7/10 are still fresh.
Good luck out there , And Thanks again
Today the dollar found footing and slowly rose, yet the S&P conitinued to rise - without the slightest pullback. Something does not jive...
I am inclined to believe we had some short covering today and I do not think we'll see follow through into the close tomorrow. I'll be monitoring the futures tonight.
Cheers.
will enter short positions in near term, most likely. maybe tomorrow. i do not think that we have any real rush to get short. i think the trick will be selecting the right shorts...
Looking at the hourly again, we see a H&S pattern alright - it is inverted! The head and two very symetrical shoulders! How funny.
With that picture in mind, and knowing how price mirroring is common, we can should see some up and down in the range of 1070 - 1100 this week. This could get tricky as it is at a top - we have to watch for dramatic breaks up or down from here on out...
David the SHS the bottom of the Head last Mondays low at 1029 ?
Are the shoulders at 1070ish ?
Payline,
On the 20 day view of hourly the inverted head max at 1020, the left shoulder at 1043 and the right at 1045. You can see on the chart in my blog...
Funny how clear it is to me now!
The three buy bars followed by the one major sell bar on Nov 2 is what made this baby invisible...
hi david.. does the inverted h/s have any significance? there's really nothing between here and 1110 (previous high)/1120 (50% retracement from alltime high) other than the congestion you pointed out, right? i think today was short covering too - that huge gap was just too convenient to sidestep all that congestion and trigger stops early in the morning..
Hi Devon,
The inverted H&S is only significant in that it showed a neckline which snapped at the open. I put that neckline at around 069. Now, measure the head to neck and we get 30pts. That should be the distance of the run from the break. So we are looking at a test at 1100 intraday - of course we know that but the technicals of the inverted H&S are confirmation and in a sense, put some objective limits/projections for this rally.
got it.. thanks..
David , thanks I said shoulder when, I should have said neckline, I see the little guy there .
Thanks again , Good luck out there
Would have liked to see a harder " snap " back from the low on the $ .
Lets see if the 1110 top for gold holds as the top .
Hey Payline,
The dollar is a mess - and looking at this chart of the dollar index, I would say that we can go as low as 71.500ish. (Set the period to 500 days) The question is will the world allow it?
I think this is why gold and silver are important hedges right now. I just can't imagine the equities remaining coupled to the dollar during the fall.
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