Friday, August 7, 2009

A note on sentiment...

The US Labor Department release the July jobs report which indicated that employers reduced the number of job cuts to 247,000. The report also indicated that the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%, and the revisions to last month were positive. Of course, this is a good signal for the "strong recovery" camp. But is it really? Can a V-shaped recovery be possible with these numbers? At best, we are looking at a prolonged bottom in terms of economic activity - yet the markets have fully baked in a V style recovery.

Has sentiment really taken control of the markets? Read the following and let me know:

"The latest sentiment readings are disturbingly bullish. The market has not been at such psychological extremes since major market tops were last put in place. The latest reading from traed-futures Daily Sentiment Index reported 88% bull among S&P traders. The last time a readg this high was reported was on October 9, 2007 - a top in the DOW."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/154606-sentiment-readings-disturbingly-bullish

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