Friday, March 12, 2010

Mid-day Thoughts on SPX...

Decided to talk about a basic pattern that repeats itself often. No guarentee that I will be right, so please keep in mind it is just a mid-day observation. Trade at your own risk fellas!

4 comments:

Paulus said...

Nice format this movie thing.
It's a big fight out there.
Break or make. Bulls are defending fiercely.
I guess we need more patience and more sessions. Unless something happens in last hour.
One thing, there seem to be coming some more bearish voices around.
Could that be another and final beartrap?

good luck and good to see you back at the desk dave.

David O said...

Thanks Paulus.

I don't think the bears have shown up to the party yet. I think the bulls who got us this far are fighting amongst themselves. Heavy selling has not happened yet. I think we are at a dangerous level for bulls. We are basing too far under the true overhang (in the low 1200's on SPX and low 11000's on DJI). The longer it takes at this level, the less likely we'll reach the overhang. Imagine what will happen if we see another corrective wave like the one we saw last month. That is going to shake loose a huge chunk of the overhang supply.

Anyway, the day played out about what I expected - though I thought we would close down a bit more than where we are.

I'll stick with the video format and save my writting for these comment threads.

Cheers!

payline said...

hawking626David , like the video format , Thanks for sharing .
The Adam Eve , grew its self into a triangle didn't it ?

Last week I thought the $ was done correcting at the March 3 low , clearly it was not, looks to me like it formed a wave 4 triangle with down side breakout today , should go under 79.82 and then finally start wave 5up.
Interesting the drop in oil and gold today , with a down move in the $ .
Someone know something ?

Silver is interesting , a break of 15.59 would be super bearish , as I think it would confirm a 1,2 1,2 off the high.

Next week will be interesting . that is for sure .

take care

payline said...

David , I think today was points C down and d up of a triangle ,
( b ) is 1153 high ,
What do you think ?
If it is , 15 point up off e , most in trust ?

take care