Here is a quick reaction to the day. I have not been in a position to watch the markets or react to the markets due to other significant responsibilities in my business portfolio. Having said that, I am glad as I do not think I could stomach much of this in real time.
About Me
- David O
- David O’Neill is a technology, business, and financial entrepreneur with over 20 years experience building successful business ventures.
8 comments:
David , thanks for the Ta, ,
I am on the same page as you , going up and closing the gap from the big fall would not shock me , We totally have a Bull Market mentality right now , that is sure , all news is great ,( I mean taken to be great ) The double top in 07 does look a lot like now .
If we have an ED , as we talked about last week , it will finish tomarro , if it doe not play out , we can expect the IHS to playout
The $ will turn up ( IF it is going to , ) if it does not the rise was a corrective ABC , not a 1234 ,,, 5 on the way .
In my view if the $ was only in an ABC , 1250 almost certain , as it 100+ oil and 7$ corn , Then we can break again . ( we have seen that movie , we know how it ends )
Hey lets make some money either way ok :)
Bonds and stocks and oil rally all at the same time , some time we liven in , thats for sure :)_
It is a crazy time payline. I'll be traveling the balance of the week in our nations capital. I hope to get a read on the state of the union...
As I look at the weekly chart, It seems to me we may be in wave 5 of one massive EWT starting last year. We shall see!
'Bonds and stocks and oil rally all at the same time' Yeah dont forget the $.
It is as strong a bull as last year. Up, up, up.
My hedges are saving me for now and a scalp helps but I have never traded so opposite to my mindset and logic as now.
Good luck
The "diverging" trader
Hi Paulus ,
The $ did turn up , into a EWT wave 5
that should take it to 82.00 or higher , but when wave 5 is over there will be a 50% or more retrace between the Nov low and the new high
I can only imagine what stocks might do then. Fill the gap at 1213 from last year ?? could be.
It looks like Oil is forming a rising Box on the Daily chart,
the top is in the 86 range. could be short term down move with the
rising $ .
30 year bond tmv , tbt short looks like a nice entry coming out of a wave 4 triangle, tmv should hit over 70, I jumped in today , with a
stop at 60 .
Strange times , these are , I have no idea if todays pullback was a one day wonder , wait and see.
Good Luck Out there
Payline
Finally a small correction.
Dave, hope you did not mis it, due to your traveling.
A good day.
I do not see big distribution yet. Also the slight bounce end of day does not look bearish. Indices seem to stay, (be back) within the trading channels, after peeping above resistance (qqq, S%P). So a little fake or a stonecold breach? Will see next week.
Missed the oil & € short play, as I did not dare to trade it. It is so strange to see what damage this rally has done, in my decisionmaking. Trades I have done time and time again (short oil 82 long 76/77) I pass due to hesitation.
Gold hedge now worked against me more than expected, will monitor this position closely.
But no complaints as I reversed some longs to shorts right on time.
If you have time please enlighten me on your 30 year bond tmv trades and reasoning. What, except EW, rationale you use to trade these and when. Or is it a hedge or FX/$ combination trade.
Have a good weekend. Hope more bears will come alive again next week
Hi Paulus
http://www.trending123.com/Technical-Analysis-May-2006/Triangles-are-overlapping-five-wave-structures.html
Is a link about triangles ,
Take a look at TMV , see the points
(A) (C) and (E) all at about 63.50 , and
(B) at 69.50 on 2/18 and (D) at 67.00 on 3/10 (A) was 2/05 ,
Sometimes (E) will throw under the line before it gos up ( so guys like us get stopped out ) then there should be rocket move up , by at least the amount of the widest part of the triangle .
Most triangles break to the direction of the trend and the the signal one more move in the trend before correction .
I hope all that helps :)
60 or 61 is a good stop
You know I keep looking at oil and I dont know what the heck it is going to do , it could have a SHS
with a 12$ neckline , or it could be a B wave diagonal, and fall it 70 and bounce off and up to 120 .
This has not been an easy market to
trade , that much we know ..
good luck out there .
Hope David is home safe and sound soon ,
Thanks Payline,
Thanks for link
I'm no expert in this area, so good to refresh these views.
Crazy day again. - 1,5% start my euro index, looked great then reversal at US open to almost even.
Reversed some hedges along the way, to be holding once again full short positions.
Futures? Got stopped out 5!!! times today within 0,2 points to see a reversal. Crazy stuff.
Anyway, made some ground so very eager to see the next sessions.
Good luck and thanks for sharing the info!
Paulus , it have been crazy ,
I sold out of Gold Short time am .
Looks like the fight now is 1169 to 1153, I expect we will fall back to 1145 and lets see what happens then,
If it keep saying it maybe it will happen
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