I was recently accepted into a masters program in Financial Engineering with Stevens Institute of Technology. I had a meeting with my faculty advisor this afternoon (incredibly smart Dr. German Creamer) followed by a terrific presentation from the managing director of quantatitive finance for S&P (brilliant Dr. William J. Morokoff). It was a very exciting visit and I had the opportunity to engage with some of brightest people in finance today. Looking forward to more of that.
Anyway, I left my desk at about 1:30PM after a quick check on the markets. The day showed typical volatillity and I was confident that we would see a down 20 day perhaps. I left with more shorts in play. On the way in to Hoboken I participated on a conference call with a client who informed me that the DOW had just dropped 9% in a matter of 20 minutes. Wow. I did not see that coming. Not in a single session. 200-400 points would not have been a surprise. 1000 is insane.
There are lots of rumors flying about computer glitches, financial terror, etc. Bottom line, the instability of the market should now be clear to all. Sadly, I did not have a chance to operate the desk during this extremely rare event. I am not sure I would have done the right things - but I do wish I had a chance.
And finally, wow!
Cheers!
About Me
- David O
- David O’Neill is a technology, business, and financial entrepreneur with over 20 years experience building successful business ventures.
6 comments:
Congratulations. I hope you let us all be a fly on the wall to some of the things you learn from these brilliant minds you are working with.
Congratulations , David certainly sounds interesting .
I dont buy any of the glitch bs,
I bought 3000 shares of spxu at 2:36 est today , ( yes really ) cus I thought , this thing is gonna fall apart and get ugly , - 400 was what I expected , the train moved the bottom fell out , no short covering to catch it .
I did not do that great on the 2:36 buy , in fact I did not sell it tell after-hours , the moves in the one min bars where nuts
I couldn't help but wonder if David had help his short position :)
take care
I was already wondering where you all were at the time we finally finally are rewarded for trusting in fundamentals (ehhh kinda) and holding on to our strategy (ehh sorta).
So back to school it was ;-)
Anyway after been killed time and time again fairly and convincingly defeated by the bulls all these months, this was our week of glory.
Mentally so close to defeat and despair, I am so happy I did not surrender. But it was close.
I was and still am 99% short. In high leverage junk as Dave calls it, for a glorious bear comeback.
I was at the future desk during some of the freak drop & rise, but It was not sane to trade. Certainly not at marketprice as they would have cheated you for many a point volatility being so erratic and spreads crazy. You cannot beat trade computers.
I had no clue as to what was happening, or to what range bid/sell price to trade limit. So I sat on my hands in awe.
Some regrets in hinsight, shoulda, woulda, coulda. But honestly it was a computer related event, where delayed retail traders do not stand any chance.
Good luck today.
Thanks fellas,
I debated this masters concept for some time and decided that the algorithmic trading platforms are in charge of the market and it is becoming difficult to remain confident in good old human TA. (though I know it will prevail).
I will definately be sharing what I learn through study and research projects. I start in the fall, though the summer will be full with probability, statistics, and stochastic calculus. (Yikes, I need to get the latest slide rule)
So, back to the markets. We have a conundrum. The spike yesterday happened so fast and so dramatically that it skews the TA. For example, most of the stocks quickly darted down to their 50pMA on the weekly chart and found support. The SPX did the same and so did the DJI. Each touching the bottom BB. This action would normally occur during the course of two or three weeks. What do we conclude?
Generally, we would expect momentum to shift (at least temporarily) to the upside. But I am not so sure about that. This was a very high volume event - not a computer glitch. The market is spooked and there was a mad rush to the exits. This is very similiar to the lehman days.
Watch for significant volatility and continued down pressure during the weeks ahead. I think we see another 1000 points off the dji - taking us to the 9400-9500 area and another 120 off the SPX taking us to the 1000 level. These represent 38% retracements of the entire run since March 09.
If you doubt that possibility - consider that we almost reached those levels yesterday in 20 minutes.
Cheers.
Hi David ,
The follow thew today was pretty telling , I thing we are in a wave 4
triangle , and 1000 - 940 on spx , for wave 5 , So we see the same thing . The Nov low is Key
Way back when you wrote about the run for the isles , break 1150 , break the whole rally trend line , boom
that was yesterday :)
How about the biggest SHS ever , ever 2000 S 2007 H Now S , I recall you mentioning it as possible last summer if we did the un thinkable and hit 1225 .
How did the wine rack turn out ?
Reality will overcome skynet in the end , when ever the end is
take care
David, workin hard or hardly workin?
update please. Peace Love and all the rest..;)
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