Hi David , glad to have you back we missed you , glad to here all is well . The $ looks like it might have more legs , briefly out of the up Chanel its back in , if we get to new highs we can look for 83 , 84 , That supports the view of some pull back.
I sold my long and treasury shorts yesterday, that felt good. I expect to get back in the t-bill short, after the corrective move is over.
Spy short term as too many possibles , I think the most probable is today was an ABC zigzag down, Wave 2 of 3 of 5 , if so hard fast upside . or 1,2 1,2 down , hard down side , just the opposite ,
I totally agree , long in the tooth this is rally is , I am still certain this is a bear market rally
EWI , thinks from the Feb low is a A wave, and are expecting a B down , then a C up to top it all off . the reason I mention it is that would seem for the first time sence the march low , that EWT lined up , with Bonds , $ , and the market.
I also think Oil is in a Big triangle ( EWI doesnt ,:) ) point 4 is now , point 5 would be in the mid 70s , then break out to near 100. That would also seem to fit .
Well well who is back at the desk and things start a moving? Although fully (and some) leveraged short index & oil, I do not anticipate any serious sell offs in this area eventough volume (my euro index) is picking up on downside, it seems buy the dip is still in place. Will it change? More violently? Could be butt less likely. But being beaten up day after day lately, it is a nice change. However I will be nimble and take profit (eehh & recover some losses too ;-) when buying kicks in & bouncing.
No short bonds position yet payline, keep me informed when you see the correction is over in your opinion. For eurozone and the huge Greece problems, short bonds UK, Spain, Portugal and later Italy could be a nice play. Especially if you also see $/Eur moving lower on longer term and up short term.
the $ is keeping me guessing for sure , it will clear up with time
Bonds I entered at 64 ish and closed out added at 69.10 and sold 69. 54
I expect to get back in its an ABC zig zaf correction I think , A and B are down , I expect tmv to fall to 65.00 or less , and then rise , a close under 61.50 and its upside is likly done.
I could also be forming a SHS top , so I am just watching for now :)
5 comments:
Welcome back, missed your TA of the market action.
Hi David , glad to have you back we missed you , glad to here all is well .
The $ looks like it might have more legs , briefly out of the up Chanel
its back in , if we get to new highs
we can look for 83 , 84 ,
That supports the view of some pull back.
I sold my long and treasury shorts yesterday, that felt good. I expect to get back in the t-bill short,
after the corrective move is over.
Spy short term as too many possibles , I think the most probable is today was an ABC zigzag down, Wave 2 of 3 of 5 , if so hard fast upside .
or 1,2 1,2 down , hard down side ,
just the opposite ,
I totally agree , long in the tooth this is rally is , I am still certain this is a bear market rally
EWI , thinks from the Feb low is a A wave, and are expecting a B down , then a C up to top it all off .
the reason I mention it is that would seem for the first time sence the march low , that EWT lined up ,
with Bonds , $ , and the market.
I also think Oil is in a Big triangle ( EWI doesnt ,:) ) point 4 is now , point 5 would be in the mid 70s , then break out to near 100. That would also seem to fit .
Thats my whole 4.5 cents :)
Cheers
Well well who is back at the desk and things start a moving?
Although fully (and some) leveraged short index & oil, I do not anticipate any serious sell offs in this area eventough volume (my euro index) is picking up on downside, it seems buy the dip is still in place. Will it change? More violently? Could be butt less likely.
But being beaten up day after day lately, it is a nice change.
However I will be nimble and take profit (eehh & recover some losses too ;-) when buying kicks in & bouncing.
No short bonds position yet payline, keep me informed when you see the correction is over in your opinion. For eurozone and the huge Greece problems, short bonds UK, Spain, Portugal and later Italy could be a nice play. Especially if you also see $/Eur moving lower on longer term and up short term.
Closed oil shorts @ 85,4
Hi Paulus ,
the $ is keeping me guessing for sure , it will clear up with time
Bonds I entered at 64 ish and closed out added at 69.10 and sold 69. 54
I expect to get back in its an ABC zig zaf correction I think , A and B are down , I expect tmv to fall to 65.00 or less , and then rise , a close under 61.50 and its upside is likly done.
I could also be forming a SHS top , so I am just watching for now :)
good luck out there
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