I took today as an opportunity to cash in on my long hedge positions. These include all of the in-the-money February and March call options and believe it or not, I took profits on SLV.
We officially broke out of the down channel today on both SPX and DJI. We are also inside the lower portion of a congestion band that may take some time to clear. As I see it, we will either muddle along in the 1090-1110 range for next couple of weeks, or we are going to see another test of 1040 this week. The general conditions have not changed. National debt crisis in Europe is still unraveling, China is selling US dollar, FEDs need to raise rates. Dollar has cooled and is looking for support here - but will likely fall lower to the 78.900s. Finally, lots of gaps were filled today and volumes were very low going into the key 1100 area.
My traveling is extreme and I just haven't any time to post a chart. Do look at the DJI and SPX daily charts to appreciate the overhang supply that should serve as resistance short term.
Cheers!
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14 comments:
Hi David , welcome home , the market missed you , seems it cant go down without you .
take a look at the Nov , Dec " box "
the middle of and ABC ,
Look at the last weeks action on the H cart , not as flat top but alot the same " a Box " , that would put us in a C . ( like the Santa rally )
Oil and Gold sport similar patterns .
Congrats on your silver timing , and Calls,
taking profit is the fun part :)
I was able to exit 30 year short last week on the death to Bonds day.
The 30 year look like it working on a massive SHS with a neckline from 119.70 to 117 , The left S took over 2 weeks to form , Im not clear how that fits in the rest of the pie ,
At this point I fear not the upside .
Good luck out there
Hi David , welcome home , the market missed you , seems it cant go down without you"
Better stay home!!
I have no clue. Not trading for some days as channel was bound to be broken.
Gold is doing fine. But it looks like a ouzo driven relief rallye. Or low volume specialist.
Will hold light short positions, looking to add mildly at 110+ area
Hi David ,
I think we go down now , the ABC should be over.
Lets see what come next
good luck to all
we could see more upside than one would expect. will try to play within a range and shift to short again. wish i could predict the future.
Kerry , they future becomes clear as soon as it becomes the past :)
Beware of sudden reversal down .
Best of luck for everyonewking
Payline,
Getting philosophical?
Good luck this week. Looks like a decisive few sessions
Hey guys,
anyone feel like we will correct back to 1040/20 here, or not?.
Hi , David , Paulus , Kelly Cbs , and anyone I left out ,
Today was nice but we will need follow threw of some kind ,
Still lost of possibility's and nothing to to get all happy about yet..
My best for everyone
Payline, dave, missed you guys.
Closed some shorts (15%) in weakness yesterday, position being under water for some time, little green numbers looked like an opportunity.
Do not think the trading range will be broken, however any serious upward potential looks less likely. So will stick to the strategy.
Target 1080 and downward.
Added crude shorts just shy of 80 for short term play.
Just wait and see. No Guarantee!
Paulus,
what do you use for crude shorts?
do you buy futures, or inverse etf like dto, or sco?
thanks.
CBS,
I mostly use CFD's with my broker.
OILUSAPR10 in this case. Based on the futures.
As this is a contract (for difference) with my bank I need less margin (Initial + maintainance for futures) and i can buy less barrels (1 future = 1000 barrels, 1 CFD=1 barrel)
David will return soon, I can sense it. He must be very busy with work and family. I hope all is well..:)
I am long with a moderate line on SD as an earnings play. There seems to be a little short covering today. Other natties are filling all gaps today as well.
CBS
SD, so you follow HMS position.
Thought about shorting SD @ 8.44 but did not want to get distracted.
Good luck on the SD numbers today.
Closed crude short for a profit, bit early it seems.
Other shorts do rock today!! Closed another 15%.
So still 70% position.
Good luck!!
Yeah I nibbled a little bit, I'll unload it tomorrow.
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